Whether "oil" (petroleum) or other resources:
Why and how "Peak exports" often comes before "Peak production"
Simplified but qualitatively correct overhead
examples to accompany lecture
Case 1: Oil Exporting Country with Production Peak,
but with constant domestic demand (simplified/idealized)
| Production
| 1
| 2
| 3
| 4
| 5
| 4
| 3
| 2
| 1
Domestic
Consumption
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| Net Exports
| 0
| 1
| 2
| 3
| 4
| 3
| 2
| 1
| 0
| | |
Notice: "exports" peak the same year that "production" peaks
Case 2:
Oil Exporting Country with Production Peak,
but with rising domestic demand (simplified/idealized)
| Production
| 1
| 2
| 3
| 4
| 5
| 4
| 3
| 2
| 1
Domestic
Consumption
| 0
| 0.5
| 1
| 2
| 3
| 4
| ?
| ?
| ?
| Net Exports
| 1
| 1.5
| 2
| 2
| 2
| 0
| ?
| ?
| ?
| | |
Notice: "exports" peak in the 3rd year even though production
doesn't peak until the 5th year.